N-G college basketball expert Scott Richey weighs in on the 2021 Big Ten tournament before it tips off Wednesday in Indianapolis:
No. 1 Michigan (19-3, 14-3 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … Franz Wagner plays like the NBA lottery pick he’s getting projected as and Hunter Dickinson just keeps grinding away in the post. Michigan doesn’t lack for talent. Depth, maybe, but not talent.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … senior guard Eli Brooks is actually the linchpin of the entire operation in Ann Arbor, Mich. The Wolverines’ three regular season losses included Brooks missing the entire Minnesota game and injuring his ankle Sunday at Michigan State.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … with few worries regardless of how the Big Ten tournament plays out. The Wolverines are a lock for a No. 1 seed. That work was done before the not-so-great final week of the regular season.
No. 2 Illinois (20-6, 16-4 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … Brad Underwood can keep pushing the right buttons. He did it with Ayo Dosunmu when he called Iowa’s Luka Garza the best player in the country. The next motivational tool is easy. Just a quick reminder that the Big Ten crowned Michigan its champ.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … their aversion to making free throws truly bites them this time. It almost happened in the regular season finale at Ohio State, and this is the worst free show shooting Illini team since Bruce Weber’s 2007-08 squad shot just 60.8 percent.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … basking in the glow of a No. 1 seed. Remarkable to think about when considering how long it has been since the Illini made the NCAA tournament (eight years) and how many losses they had just two years ago (a program-record 21).
No. 3 Iowa (20-7, 14-6 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … Joe Wieskamp is fine. The junior guard went down with an injury Sunday and was immediately in a boot. If he goes, all is well considering Iowa still has one of the top two players in the country in Luka Garza.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … Wieskamp’s ankle injury keeps him off the court. Think of it as similar to the stretch the Hawkeyes played without CJ Fredrick (1-3). Just worse because Wieskamp is Iowa’s second-leading scorer.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … safely in the NCAA tournament as, at worst, a No. 2 seed. What’s become an annual swoon in the second half of the Big Ten regular season wound up not hurting the Hawkeyes much at all.
No. 4 Purdue (18-8, 13-6 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … coach Matt Painter can continue to get the best out of his rather young roster. The Boilermakers don’t have a single senior in their rotation and leaned heavily on four freshmen. Successfully, too, with five straight wins to end the regular season.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … those freshmen buckle under the pressure of postseason play. Think playing every other day or every third day is tough in the Big Ten? Their push for a top four seed means fewer games to play, but the starting opponent will just be tougher.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … knowing they’re back in the NCAA tournament after last year (they weren’t in) snapped a five-year streak of appearances. The only unknown is seeding, but that same regular season run helped secure a potential four-seed.
No. 5 Ohio State (18-8, 12-8 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … E.J. Liddell treats the rest of the Big Ten like he does Illinois. Now in three games against the Illini, the former N-G All-State Player of the Year is averaging 20.7 points and 7.3 rebounds and shooting 50 percent from three-point range.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … Liddell can’t carry them. And Duane Washington Jr. can’t get shots to fall. And if the “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” thing the Buckeyes have going backfires like it did with four consecutive loses to end the regular season.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … bummed they missed out on a No. 1 seed — it was there for the taking — but secure in a probable two-seed. Of course, that means the Buckeyes will probably wind up in a region with either Gonzaga or Baylor. Not ideal.
No. 6 Wisconsin (16-11, 10-10 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … D’Mitrik Trice goes on a heater like he did at the end of the Badgers’ home loss to Illinois, with the caveat, of course, that he gets a little more help. Nate Reuvers breaking out of a nearly season-long funk wouldn’t hurt.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … what happened in the final month-and-a-half of the regular season wasn’t some fluke and was, in fact, an indictment about this Wisconsin team’s place in the Big Ten. Zero wins against the top half of the conference from Jan. 20 on is noteworthy.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … knowing they’re safely in the NCAA tournament. Whether or not the Badgers will spend much time in the state of Indiana is what’s up for debate. They seem ripe for falling in a first-round upset to, well, anybody.
No. 7 Rutgers (14-10, 10-10 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … they can figure out something — anything — on the offensive end. Rutgers has the defense to win and compete, ranking in the top 10 nationally in adjusted efficiency. Its inability to run good offense, though, makes that defense semi-worthless.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … Ron Harper Jr. has one of those games where he doesn’t make any of his three-pointers. After starting the season red hot from the perimeter, Harper’s posted nine 0-fers from beyond the arc in 23 games.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … wondering what went wrong. The Scarlet Knights are going to make the NCAA tournament, but their January swoon and late-season slide after peaking as the No. 11 team in the country on Dec. 21 did them no favors when it comes to seed line.
No. 8 Maryland (15-12, 9-11 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … gritty guards really do make a difference in the postseason. The Terrapins aren’t exactly lacking in that regard from senior leader Darryl Morsell to leading scorer Aaron Wiggins to nominal point guard Eric Ayala.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … their lack of a true big man bites them in a conference loaded with top-level centers. It already hasn’t helped their offensive rebounding rate (among the worst in the country), and Jairus Hamilton and Galin Smith could be in for a rough time.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … not so comfortably in the NCAA tournament field after losing the final two games of the regular season to Northwestern and Penn State. Talk about not ideal. The Terps are still on the right side of the bubble, but the margin is certainly narrower.
No. 9 Michigan State (15-11, 9-11 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … Aaron Henry continues to play like he did through the second half of the season, averaging 18.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists in the final 12 games. Michigan State was waiting for the light to go on with its veteran wing. It just took a while.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … teams can handle their physicality. Michigan State’s best shot to win this season has been to ugly up games. Let opposing teams get comfortable, and the Spartans haven’t had have much of an answer on the defensive end.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … on pins and needles. The bubble is foreign territory for the Spartans in the Tom Izzo era, but that’s where they sit. Of course, late-season wins against Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan certainly helped their case.
No. 10 Indiana (12-14, 7-12 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … Trayce Jackson-Davis carries them there. His breakout sophomore season with new career-highs in scoring and rebounding has been one of the only positives in a mostly disappointing season for the Hoosiers.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … all they have going for them is Jackson-Davis. That’s been the case far too often this season, as Indiana’s guards haven’t provided much balance. Armaan Franklin has been hurt and inconsistent, and Khristian Lander just wasn’t ready.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … wondering if it’s time to (peruses Twitter) reach out to Baylor’s Scott Drew? At least if the Indiana fan base has its way. Archie Miller is probably a long shot to be fired, but a lackluster four years has him on the hottest of hot seats.
No. 11 Penn State (10-13, 7-12 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … Myreon Jones and Co. have five wins in five days in them. That’s the challenge when you finish in the bottom four of the conference. Considering the most consecutive games the Nittany Lions have won this season is two, the odds are low.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … their struggles scoring inside the three-point line (of which there are many) get worse against a number of rather stingy Big Ten defenses. Penn State ranks outside the top 300 nationally in two-point field goal percentage.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … taking the necessary steps to find some coaching stability. Jim Ferry’s interim run will be complete after he stepped in following an October resignation from Pat Chambers. The realities of the job (it’s not a great one) makes for a tough hire.
No. 12 Northwestern (9-14, 6-13 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … the team that won consecutive games against Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State to start the Big Ten schedule shows up. At minimum. The Wildcats, with their Wednesday start, will have to win five games in five days to take home a tourney title.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … the team that followed up those three big wins with 13 consecutive losses shows up instead. Boo Buie’s sophomore slide during that stretch was a sight to see. He averaged just 6.8 points and shot 29.5 percent in those 13 games.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … wondering what it will take to get back to the NCAA tournament. This year will be a fourth straight miss. While it’s not the 78 years it took to make it the first time, 2017 now feels like an awfully long time ago.
No. 13 Minnesota (13-14, 6-14 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … Marcus Carr plays more like the preseason All-Big Ten selection he was and less like the guy who scored seven points on 1 of 13 shooting in the Gophers’ regular-season finale loss. A healthy Liam Robbins wouldn’t hurt either.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … the tournament plays out like the final month of the regular season did. A final month where Minnesota maintained their inability to win on the road and even lost whatever magic they had going at Williams Arena in dropping three home games.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … hitting the reset button unless the financial realities of the COVID-19 pandemic throw a wrench in those plans. Even then, it might be difficult to keep the Richard Pitino era going after the way the Gophers bottomed out to end the year.
No. 14 Nebraska (7-19, 3-16 Big Ten)
➜ They’ll win the tournament if … Teddy Allen’s abrupt departure really was addition by subtraction. It’s counterintuitive to think losing your leading scorer could be a good thing, but the Cornhuskers showed a little life winning two of their last four regular season games.
➜ They’ll have a quick exit if … we, in fact, haven’t entered the upside down. Nebraska played hard this season. That can’t be denied. They just couldn’t hang with the rest of the Big Ten most of the time. Fred Hoiberg’s second roster blowup didn’t yield much just yet.
➜ They’ll spend Selection Sunday … planning for the future. Five-star guard Bryce McGowens — the younger brother of current Nebraska guard, Trey — is on his way to Lincoln, Neb., next season. The first five-star recruit in program history. It’s a start at least.
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